Last year will likely leave plenty of material for historians, anthropologists, psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, and economists to study for years to come. The S&P 500 Index advanced 21.83% in 2017 including reinvested dividends. No question about it, 2017 offered rich rewards to those who invested in a well-diversified stock portfolio. And it did so with very little volatility. In fact, 2017 is the only year on record that the index posted a positive monthly return every single month. In comparison to the average intra-year pullback of -13.6%, 2017’s largest intra-year pullback was only -2.8%. This lack of volatility was simply remarkable and should not lull us into a complacent expectation that volatility will never return. Read more here... Q4 Economic Update.
LPL Research 2018 Outlook
Over the past eight years, extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has served as the primary catalyst for spurring continued economic growth in the U.S. and around the globe. Although the economic expansion has delivered steady gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consistent returns for the broad stock market, and an improving job market, the expansion itself has been lackluster. While we’re still set in a familiar scene, solidly in this economic expansion, we need some new characters to take charge—to bring the market back to its traditional roots and raise the bar on what we expect from global growth, a continued expansion, and one of the longest and largest bull markets in history. Click here to read more... LPL Research 2018 Outlook
2017 Q3 Economic Update
Despite the dizzying cascade of troubling headlines, the S&P 500 Index finished the quarter at a record high, running up its quarterly winning streak to eight consecutive quarters (WSJ). One consistent theme we've presented is the strength and resilience of economic fundamentals. Ultimately, stocks prices are largely driven by corporate profit growth. And profits are driven largely by economic growth at home and abroad. We are currently in the midst of a synchronized global expansion, creating a strong tailwind for earnings. Click here to read more... Q3 Economic Update.
2017 Q2 Economic Update
July 12th, 2016 marked the first new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 Index in nearly 14 months. LPL research noted at the time, a first new high after at least a year can kick off a strong period of outperformance for equities. Sure enough, the S&P 500 has made 42 new highs and is up 14% over the past year (as of July 13, 2017). But, the amazing performance over the past twelve months doesn’t stop there. The index incredibly hasn’t pulled back at least 5% (on a closing basis) over that period. Click here to read more... Q2 Economic Update
2017 Midyear Outlook
Thus far in 2017, the consistency of a new fiscal-led dynamic has been uneven, leading to shifting market leadership amidst low volatility and a narrow trading range for major market indexes. To be sure, in the post-election rally, the financial markets began to price in many of the pro-growth policies offered by the Trump administration. Yet, despite an initial flurry of activity, political momentum slowed, and investor sentiment dampened even as consumer and business confidence remained high. Despite these developments, U.S. equity indexes managed to progress through the first half of 2017 either at, or very near, all-time highs. Click here to read more... LPL Research 2017 Midyear Outlook
